By Patrick Donati, Founder of Terrawatt
The challenge of climate finance
The COP gatherings tend to be measured by two yardsticks: the ambition of participating countries’ climate plans (Nationally Determined Contributions) and the financial support pledged to help developing countries address the issues that climate change poses. The reality is that this is the first year we are on track to exceed 1.5 degrees. The target for a global transition to green energy, initially set at $6.5 trillion per year by 2030, was an ambitious goal. However, the commitment made at COP 29 fell short of expectations, offering $300 billion—a fraction of the required amount. Nevertheless, it was a step, and one in the right direction.
It is difficult to reflect a majority or consensus view. This outcome was met with understandable frustration from developing countries, who have long argued that wealthier nations—responsible for the majority of historical emissions—owe both financial and moral support to those most exposed to climate impacts. The $300 billion commitment, framed as a “floor, not a ceiling,” has raised concerns about the real level of support that will be available and the substantial debt burden it could place on nations already struggling with financial constraints.
That said, there is room for an alternate perspective. The former UN Secretary-General and UN Climate Chief have acknowledged that the current pace of climate action is insufficient. Despite this, even if all governments implemented their policies fully, the world would likely exceed the 1.5°C target set in the Paris Agreement. Negotiators, however, did manage to find agreement on the remaining sections of Article 6 on carbon markets, meaning all elements of the Paris Agreement have been finalised nearly 10 years after it was signed.
Climate action at a crossroads
The choice of Azerbaijan to host COP 29 prompted its own set of debates. Some argued that petrostates face inherent conflicts of interest when it comes to meaningful dialogue around abandoning these assets. President Ilham Aliyev’s statement of fossil fuels being a “gift from God” exemplified the deeply ingrained economic dependency these countries have on oil. Yet, as hard as it may be for some to transition away from fossil fuels, the reality is that petrostates do exist, and ignoring their role in the process would limit the ability to reach a truly global agreement.
The solution is not to ignore or ostracise petrostates but to work with them on a transition plan that allows them to phase out fossil fuels while safeguarding workers’ livelihoods in any given sector. We all appreciate that the worsening impacts of climate change will not spare any country. The focus should be on building international systems that provide support for retraining, reskilling and offering alternative visions for a fossil-free future—actions that could help countries with heavy fossil fuel reliance to embrace a cleaner and more sustainable energy economy.
The value of COP talks: slow but necessary progress
COP 29 negotiations fell short in the pace and scope of the discussions, and many felt that the event could be seen as just another talking shop. However, there is a broader context to consider. At COP 29, discussions centred on the transfer of a prospective hundreds of billions of dollars each year from developed to developing nations to support climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. This is no small sum, and given the sheer scale of the challenge, it is understandable that such negotiations are complex and fraught with controversy. The fact that nearly 200 nations are working together to find common ground on how to tackle climate change is itself an important step forward, even if the pace of progress is slower than many would like.
Private sector momentum: a complement to COP
The momentum seen in the private sector suggests there are other avenues for accelerating the green transition in tandem with COP proceedings. In key economies like the United States, China and the EU, the private sector is making significant strides in renewable energy deployment, particularly solar power. Technological advances and declining costs are making solar energy a feasible and attractive alternative to traditional fossil fuels.
In some instances, private businesses and local governments are stepping in where national governments have faltered, indicating that market-driven approaches might play an increasingly central role in the green transition. While these solutions are not always equitable or comprehensive, they have the potential to drive significant change, especially if backed by commitments from both the public and private sectors.
Talking the talk, walking the walk
The broader takeaway from COP 29 is that the current model of international climate negotiations may be due a rethink. Without the participation of the United States in the Paris process and with countries like Argentina withdrawing their delegations from the COP negotiations, the future of COP feels uncertain. Nevertheless, reaching an agreement at COP 29 was preferable to no agreement at all, and the process remains a crucial platform for direction, inspiration and influence—and establishing common ground. Rather than dismissing the process as ineffective, there is a need for a more practical approach that reflects the urgency of the climate crisis and adapts to the realities of a rapidly changing world.
Beyond the negotiations, it is worth noting that COP 29 did include positive discussions and interventions. Some dialogue is better than silence, but we need more collaboration internationally—and more leaders willing to make the case for it. If COP is to remain relevant, it must evolve to focus on enforceable targets, penalties for non-compliance, and robust financial mechanisms to help poorer nations transition. While the progress may seem slow, the stakes are too high to discard the platform entirely. The question now is whether the momentum generated in other sectors, alongside COP, can push governments to follow suit before the window for action closes.
